06 August 2012
Ernesto pulls a surprise... and we're back on Chase Alert!
Ernesto was on its deathbed yesterday—like it might not survive its trip across the Caribbean.
But in a perfect illustration of how fickle tropical cyclones are—and how difficult it is to plan chases—the cyclone very suddenly strengthened overnight, developing deep convection and a very small, tight wind core.
iCyclone right-hand man Scott Brownfield called Josh Morgerman in the predawn hours to advise him of the sudden change—that Ernesto was springing back to life and a chase might be in order. Meteorologist Adam Moyer—who's been extremely accurate in forecasting this cyclone from the very beginning—feels confident that a decent hurricane will be coming ashore.
The National Hurricane Center predicts Ernesto will become a hurricane tonight, and their forecast brings it to the coast of N Belize as a strong Category 1 late tomorrow night.
From a chasing perspective, the big question is: Will the cyclone's center cross the coast on the Mexico side or the Belize side of the border? This matters because international border crossings can be tricky—especially when a hurricane is approaching. Moyer believes it will be on the Belize side—but of course these things are hard to predict.
We'll make a decision whether or not to chase Ernesto—and where—within a few hours. Stay tuned!