22 August 2012
Isaac eyes Metro South Florida, suggesting possible chase.

Well, it's way too early to know what's going to happen with this, but we're once again gearing up for a possible chase in a few days!

Tropical Storm Isaac is approaching the Lesser Antilles, and the National Hurricane Center's latest forecast has a strengthening hurricane approaching Metro South Florida very early Monday!

But the situation is complex, for a couple of reasons:

  • The computer models are showing a wide range of solutions by Day 5, with threats ranging from Louisiana to the Carolinas.
  • If Isaac takes the forecast track, it may be significantly weakened by interaction with land—specifically, Hispaniola and Cuba.

Re: the second factor... It's hard to know for sure how the disruptive mountainous terrain of the Greater Antilles will affect Isaac. Some hurricanes bounce back very fast—for example, Hurricane King in 1950 intensified very rapidly in the short trip from Cuba to Florida, striking Downtown Miami with surprising ferocity.  But Hurricane David of 1979 never recovered from its passage over Hispaniola: after coming ashore as a whopping Cat 5 near Santo Domingo, it almost completely unraveled over the island's jagged terrain—a fortunate development for Miami, which experienced only a moderate hurricane.

For right now, it's watching and waiting time—again!

Image courtesy of Weather Underground.